Tuma's 2022 All-Prospect Starting Rotation!
I couldn't think of a better title
I recently rolled out my 2022 All-Prospect Team, which included the best individual prospect seasons for every defensive position. Today, we’ll be filling out a starting rotation. Here are the 5 SPs I believe are most deserving.
Roster spots are based on a combination of prospect pedigree, age, playing level, and statistical results. For instance, there are some minor league players in their mid-to-upper 20s who went off this season, but I’d also like to use this as an excuse to dive into some of the top prospect names everyone should be getting familiar with.
Andrew Painter, RHP, Phillies
If aliens came down from the sky and challenged us to a prospect-only baseball game with the fate of the world at stake, Painter, as of today, would be tabbed as our ace.
The 2021 13th overall pick climbed from Low-A to Double-A this summer, despite not turning 20 until next April. It was a performance worthy of MLB Pipeline’s Pitcher of the Year award. The overall numbers are obviously outstanding — among pitchers who threw at least 100 minor league innings, Painter finished 1st or 2nd in ERA, WHIP, FIP, xFIP, K%, and K-BB%.
It’s difficult to wrap my head around how impressive it is to lead in all those categories, and yet, I can’t stop looking away from his level-by-level walk rates:
Low-A: 10.7%
High-A: 4.9%
Double-A: 1.8%
That isn’t supposed to happen! Not only did Painter lower his walk rates at each stop but he did so by dramatic amounts. He was simply the best pitcher in the minors this season. Armed with a four-pitch arsenal and a repeatable delivery with easy arm action, Painter will look to solidify himself as baseball’s top pitching prospect in 2023.
Kyle Harrison, LHP, Giants
The only southpaw to make this staff, Harrison actually possessed more strikeout upside than Painter this year, edging him out in K%, 39.8% to 38.7%. Furthermore, Harrison spent more of his season in the upper minors (84 innings at Double-A compared to 28 1/3 for Painter).
A third round pick from the strange 2020 draft, Harrison was selected as a prep lefty who has Round 1 talent. His fastball arrives to hitters via a low approach angle and his slider has “slurvy”, sweep-ish tendencies. These are two characteristics of pitching that are seen as major positives in the modern game.
Albeit against tougher competition, Harrison’s needs to work on his 10.5 BB%, and it’s why he doesn’t claim the top spot over Painter. Harrison also allowed 1.09 homers per 9 innings, which isn’t a horrible mark, but it also isn’t elite like some of the other top arms from the minors. Note that his 2.91 xFIP and 3.20 FIP marks suggest he might’ve been a tad unlucky.
I’ll be really curious to see Harrison’s “Stuff+” numbers once we get that data on him (potentially in Triple-A in 2023). We might even see the southpaw with the Giants next year, according to President of Baseball Ops Farhan Zaidi:
“We expect him to be in our rotation at some point next year,” Zaidi said. “Could even be relatively early in the season.”
Gavin Stone, RHP, Dodgers
Of course there’s a Dodgers arm included. Of course there is!
Stone wasn’t even an elite prospect coming out of college, a reliever for two seasons who began starting in 2020 and threw a no-hitter in his final start before the pandemic shutdown. LA took him in the 5th and final round of that summer’s draft and have done an admirable job of developing him since then.
Since joining the Dodgers, Stone’s fastball has moved from the 90-92 mph range to the 93-97 mph range (per Baseball America). He has a low release point that helps the pitch play up in the zone, in addition to a slider and a changeup.
Stone’s results in Double-A (73 1/3 IP) and Triple-A (23 1/3 IP) were very similar, which is an encouraging sign. Each of those offensive environments were above average in terms of MiLB park factors. (Triple-A OKC was in the 86th percentile while Double-A Tulsa was in the 66th percentile).
PLUG: The full park factors spreadsheet along with dynasty rankings and tons of additional fantasy baseball content can be found at Patreon.com/toomuchtuma.
Ultimately, among MiLB pitchers with at least 100 innings, Stone ranked 1st in ERA, 2nd in FIP, 7th in xFIP, 11th in K%, and 13th in K-BB%. The only caveat to monitor is his 8.9 BB%, but similar to Harrison, we’re prioritizing hellacious “stuff” with this selection.
Hunter Brown, RHP, Astros
Brown began making a name for himself down the stretch and during the Astros’ World Series run. He’s someone I had my eye on throughout throughout the summer as I didn’t feel his prospect ranking was reflecting what we were seeing statistically from him in the offense-happy Pacific Coast League.
Over 106 innings at Triple-A, Brown registered a 2.25 ERA with a 31.5 K%. While Triple-A Sugar Land is one of the more favorable home parks to pitchers in the PCL, the league as a whole is an offensive haven. Among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in the PCL this year, Brown’s 2.55 ERA was the lowest. Nobody else checked in below 3.74! This is why he was on my radar so early — dominant success in a league built to prevent it.
The 24-year-old did have an issue with walks at the level, but according to this mid-May column from The Athletic’s Eno Sarris, Brown’s Location+ was actually above average at the time. How I interpret this is Brown might still walk too many batters as a rookie in 2023, but he puts his secondaries in advantageous spots to limit damage.
The right-hander joined Houston in September, including 2 starts and 7 total appearances, allowing just 2 earned runs over 20 1/3 innings (with 22 Ks and 7 walks).
If you’re looking for one stat to believe in Brown, it’s that of the 525 big league pitchers who threw at least 40 sliders in 2022, Brown’s 93.2 mph velocity was the hardest of them all. Jacob deGrom checked in at No. 2 on the list.
Gavin Williams, RHP, Guardians
Already 23 years old despite being drafted in 2021, Williams was a four-year college arm who spent the first three out of the bullpen at East Carolina. He transitioned to starting as a senior, and dominated, which is why Cleveland pounced on him with the 23rd overall pick that summer.
He didn’t make his professional debut until 2022, a year in which he rose from High-A to Double-A with the third lowest batting average against (BAA) among minor league SPs (min. 100 IP). He combines a loud fastball with two above-average breaking pitches and also a changeup, which makes him tough to square up.
Using the same 100 IP threshold, Williams also finished 12th in K%, 16th in K-BB%, 4th in ERA, 6th in WHIP, and 10th in FIP. He looks like the next breakout arm to come through the Guardian’s pitching development machine.