Tuma's 2023 All-Prospect Starting Rotation!
Drew Thorpe's volume, Jackson Jobe's peripherals, and more
Last week I released my 2023 All-Prospect Team of the Year. Today we’ll focus on crafting a starting rotation.
As a reminder, I factor in both prospect status and season-long production when making these choices. That’s why someone like Ricky Tiedemann isn’t listed. He’s a top-3 pitching prospect in my eyes, but someone like Drew Thorpe had a better year (while still being a top-100 prospect overall).
Let’s get to it.
Drew Thorpe, RHP, Yankees
There are some pitchers written up below performed better on a per-inning basis than Thorpe.
But nobody matched his combination of dominance AND workload in 2023.
New York’s 2nd-round pick in 2022, Thorpe didn’t make his pro debut until this season, and yet he wound up logging 139 1/3 IP to go along with a 2.52 ERA, a 3.05 FIP, and 182 strikeouts.
Among pitchers age 22 or younger (min. 60 IP) he ranked 4th in innings and 2nd in K-BB%. He finished top-15 in ERA, FIP, and K%.
What really draws me to Thorpe is this quote he gave to Baseball America:
“I’ve never been a high-velo guy, so that was the first priority from a pitching standpoint, was just being able to command and put the ball where I want to, when I need to,” Thorpe said.
“Ever since I was little and starting pitching and then going into college, that was where my sole focus was: pitchability. Just how to pitch, and the stuff would develop over time. I think it’ll continue to develop over my next couple years in pro ball.”
This rang true in 2023, as Thorpe’s velo was up from his college days all the way back in spring training.
There are some concerns with Thorpe from a fantasy perspective, however. The Yankees’ new player development staff has had a lot of success with “popup prospects” in recent years. Ken Waldichuk and Hayden Wesneski are examples of arms who thrived in their minor league system, but haven’t yet proven to be difference makers in the bigs.
Could Thorpe follow suit? It remains to be seen, but his big ‘23 workload puts him on track to get a chance in New York early-ish in 2024. His changeup is a plus offering from all scouting reports (though that’s another reason to view him as risky, as changeup-first arms aren’t always worth chasing).
Ultimately, Thorpe is best seen as a high-floor pitching prospect for those who don’t necessarily subscribe to TINSTAAPP. Thorpe might not be the best pitcher of today’s batch, but he arguably had the best minor league season.
Jackson Jobe, RHP, Tigers
Baseball America’s 2021 High School Player of the Year was taken 3rd overall in that summer’s draft. Back then Jobe was viewed as projectable at 6’2” with room to add strength and fill out his frame.
He made his pro debut in 2022, but didn’t necessarily pop while registering a 3.84 ERA in 21 starts across Low-A and High-A. Worse, his 5.17 FIP and 15.3 K-BB% left a lot to be desired. At this time last year Jobe was living up to the downside scenario of his profile, as prep right-handers are always considered risky first-round investments in the amateur draft.
He missed all of April and May in 2023 due to a back ailment, but since then he’s performed as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball:
64 IP (16 GS)
30.2 K-BB%
2.81 ERA
3.15 FIP
That elite 30.2 K-BB% ranked first among all starters with at least 60 innings in the minors this year. In early August Jobe told Fangraph’s David Laurila about his new cutter:
“I added it in the offseason, and on paper it’s a really good pitch,” the third-overall pick in the 2021 draft explained prior to his last start, which came on Friday with the High-A West Michigan Whitecaps. “I dive into all the TrackMan stuff — the vertical movement, horizontal movement, the spin efficiency, the tilt — and use the data in pitch-design. The cutter has performed pretty well.”
Jobe was always seen as a talented arm, hence his draft pedigree, but the fact he’s utilizing Trackman like this has me really bullish on his potential. I recommend reading Laurila’s piece I linked to above, especially the part about Jobe’s cutter grading out similarly to Jacob deGrom’s slider, movement wise.
What makes Jobe so exciting is that he pairs an elite 32.6 K% with a minuscule 2.3 BB%. Emmett Sheehan posted a similarly elite 29.3 K-BB% in his time in the minors this season, but that stemmed from a 41 K% and an 11.6 BB%.
I prefer Jobe’s profile, as I imagine he’ll have strong Location+ numbers upon arriving to the majors, which based on this season could realistically happen as early as 2024.
Cade Horton, RHP, Cubs
Here we have my official pick for “Pitching Prospect of the Year”, as Horton combined results, “stuff”, and future projection into a wonderful 2023 campaign.
Horton was a draft-eligible redshirt freshman in 2022, who began the year as a reliever for Oklahoma, and finished it as once of the best prospects in the country. The Cubs took a swing on him at No. 7 overall, believing that his limited experience as a full-time pitcher meant he was just scratching the surface of his potential.
Roughly 15 months later, that line of thinking is aging quite well.
Among SPs age 22 or younger, Horton finished 4th in K-BB%. (For comparison, he threw 88 1/3 IP while Thorpe sat at 139 1/3 and Jobe reached 64).
Horton also ranked 4th in FIP, and 5th in xFIP.
Scouting wise, Mason McRae notes that Horton’s best pitch is his slider, and that he also has a “platoon-neutral” curveball. This is important since he has below average feel for his changeup against lefties. As for the heater, he sits in the mid-90s with carry and cut.
Unlike Thorpe, but similar to Jobe, Horton has the goods to potentially profile as the No. 1 pitching prospect in baseball. This is a title that feels a bit up in the air right now? Tiedemann and Paul Skenes, who didn’t make this “All-Prospect Rotation” have cases as well. It feels like a light group overall.
Anyways, the last thing to note about Horton is how glowingly the Cubs and teammates spoke of him after the Double-A playoffs. The 22-year-old struck out 11 while allowing just four hits in 10 innings during the postseason. The linked story is worth a read, and is one of several I read after the club won their first outright title in 45 years. It’s a very minor/subjective thing, but Horton appears to be “a dude.” Recall that he once set a College World Series finals game record with 13 strikeouts.
Chase Hampton, RHP, Yankees
The Yankee connection makes it easy to compare Thorpe and Hampton, in addition to the fact they’re both right-handers and are more so coming off great seasons rather than being seen as truly elite prospects.
But that isn’t to say Hampton doesn’t have the goods.
As McRae notes, Hampton is another product of the Yankees’ desire to teach sweepers to their young arms. The write-up reminds me a little bit of Michael King’s repertoire.
The 2022 6th-round selection began popping in a mid-May edition of Baseball America’s Roboscout — where Dylan White comp’d his curve to George Kirby, Tink Hence, and Walker Buehler.
That’s good company to be part of, and Hampton kept on rolling from there, finishing the season with 106 2/3 IP while ranking 10th in K-BB% among pitchers age 22 or younger.
He didn’t perform as well upon his promotion to Double-A, but the 22-year-old is still ranked above Thorpe by traditional end-of-season prospect lists such as Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. It was a fantastic pro debut overall, and the way pitchers are moved aggressively through the minors nowadays, Hampton could arrive as early as next summer.
Robby Snelling, LHP, Padres
As Geoff Pontes of Baseball America points out, we probably aren’t reacting enough to Snelling’s historic 2023. Geoff notes Snelling is one of 7 minor league pitchers since 2000 to log 100 innings and an ERA under 2.00.
Other names to accomplish the feat include Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, and Jose Fernandez.
The 2022 over-slot Round 1 supplemental pick is known as a physical 6’3” southpaw with advanced feel for a low-80s breaking ball and a repeatable delivery.
Geoff also wrote a great story on Snelling’s season, which I recommend reading.
As a young arm who is still new to pitching (and who doesn’t turn 20 until December), Snelling’s ceiling feels uncapped.
McRae points out that left-handed velocity (with ride) is always rare, and also makes mention of how fast snelling seems to be developing.
While Snelling’s season-long K-BB% doesn’t quite compare to the rest of the names on my ‘23 All-Prospect staff, he gets a spot due to the workload (and results) he compiled at such a young age.