Tuma's 2023 All-Prospect Team! (For Position Players)
Featuring the Killer J's: Caminero, Holliday, and Wood
This is an exercise I started last year, which you can read here, and there isn’t anything new or particularly creative about it. I just like to sort of archive these things in the moment, before I unleash a storm of early-offseason content.
Also note that this isn’t mean to be a prospect ranking. I do factor in “prospect status” so that I’m not giving a spot to a 26-year-old crushing at AAA, but I’m also making sure to account for performance. So if a top-10 prospect had a “disappointing” year, he might not land on this team.
(As an aside, I’ve always found September to be the most challenging much to create fantasy baseball content…most leagues are settled outside of daily moves, and the analysis becomes a better fit for Twitter/Patreon/Discord rather than a long form article. And I always struggle for motivation when I know season-long stats are about to freeze for 6 months, and so I’d rather just wait on certain pieces when I know that work will be evergreen for a while. So if you’re wondering if my Substack has felt “light” of late, that’s the main reason why).
Anyways, let’s dive in. Starting pitchers to be announced in a future post.
Catcher: Samuel Basallo, Orioles
There’s a debate as to who is the best catching prospect in the minors. Ethan Salas currently sits at 6th overall on Baseball America’s Top 100 while he ranks 5th over at Pipeline.
While the 17-year-old (!!) accomplished unprecedented things this summer, the promotion to Double-A felt rushed and warped (possibly in an attempt to mess with rival teams’ age models?).
Regardless, in 70 PAs between High-A and Double-A, Salas hit just .190/.271/.222 (43 wRC+). This shouldn’t be a surprise or seen as much of a negative for his long-term future, but it still put a damper on the initial excitement.
Then there’s Basallo, whose 162 wRC+ ranked first among MiLB backstops age 22 or younger. While Salas is two years his junior, Basallo isn’t exactly old, having just turned 19 in Mid-August. In any other non-Salas campaign, we’d be reacting far more aggressively to Basallo’s achievements.
Among catchers 22 or younger, Basallo finished first in AVG, fifth in OBP, second in SLG, first in wRC+, second in HR, first in RBI, and he even swiped 12 bases.
As for underlying data, Baseball America noted earlier this month that his plus game power is supported by strong exit velocities and barrel rates (note most minor league Statcast data isn’t publicly available so we rely on nuggets like this from sources who have it).
After years of intentionally avoiding the amateur international market, the Orioles appear to have struck gold with Basallo — in a season where nearly everything went right for the organization both in Baltimore and down on the farm.
First Base: Xavier Isaac, Rays
For the second straight season, our first base representative is an early-round draft pick by the Rays. Kyle Manzardo took home the honors in 2022, and Isaac (who was taken 29th overall last summer) is next in line.
The 19-year-old spent most of this season at Low-A, registering a strong .266/.380/.462 triple slash line, good for a 128 wRC+.
Then he erupted in a late-season sample at High-A, posting an unholy .490 ISO (!!!) while swatting six homers in just 12 contests.
Among MiLB first basemen age 22 or younger, Isaac ranked top-10 in all relevant categories — homers, runs, RBI, AVG, OBP, and SLG. He finished second in wRC+.
In September Baseball America wrote that Isaac “has exceeded expectations for his athleticism while displaying the ability to hit and hit for power that scouts saw in him.” Per BA, only Junior Caminero posted a higher 90th percentile EV among teenagers in High-A.
First base doesn’t typically generate premium fantasy prospects, and some of the community might react timidly after Manzardo didn’t blossom into the elite tier this season. That’s understandable, but Isaac’s year is worth recognizing at a position that often doesn’t produce standout profiles at a young age.
Second Base: Colt Keith, Tigers
It remains disappointing that Keith didn’t earn a call-up to the Tigers this month. Back in August I flagged him as a prospect who deserved the promotion.
However, Detroit’s President of Baseball Ops Scott Harris is proving to be meticulous and patient with this rebuild, and Keith isn’t yet on the 40-man roster.
That doesn’t mean Harris isn’t impressed with what he’s seen. Here’s what he said about Keith back in June:
“Colt has been really, really fun to watch all year,” Tigers president Scott Harris said last week. “In many ways, he embodies the offensive approach we’re trying to build around in this organization. He’s swinging at the right pitches. He’s accessing his power almost every night. If you don’t catch yourself, it’s easy to forget that he’s the youngest player on the team and he’s one of the youngest players in all of Double A, and he missed some valuable reps over the course of his young career due to injury.”
After a torrid stint at Double-A, Keith stayed hot for a week upon his arrival to Triple-A, but he quickly cooled off. From July 4th through August 10th he posted a 28.6 K% with a .117 ISO.
Keith then began feasting again. From August 11th through the end of the season he recorded a 15.9 K% with a .295 ISO. This sets him up to debut with the Tigers early in 2024.
In total, Keith started 41 games at 2B this year, plus 61 at 3B and another 24 at DH. It remains to be seen where he ends up defensively, but that flexibility will only help expedite his path to the bigs.
Third Base: Junior Caminero, Rays
Caminero entered 2023 outside the top 100 prospects according to BA and Pipeline. He ranked 99th on Baseball Prospects.
He’ll finish as a consensus top-5 name on any reality or fantasy list out there.
In a season where extraordinary “age to level” performances became more common than ever before, Caminero’s early-season ascent stood out among the rest. By late-May I had seen enough, and I invested:
He was promoted to Double-A on May 28th, becoming just the second teenager to play for the Montgomery Biscuits (joining the legendary Delmon Young).
He wrapped up his time at High-A with the highest wRC+ ever for a teenager at the level (min. 150 PAs).
As Mason McRae noted in early September, Caminero is prone to chasing, but his elite bat speed and plus-plus power allow him to do damage on pitches in any location.
Among third basemen age 22 or younger this season, Caminero finished first in HR, wRC+, AVG, and OPS. He ranked second in ISO. If it wasn’t for Coby Mayo’s incredible year of his own, Caminero would’ve been without peers at his position.
Framed in an even more promising light, Caminero finished his 2023 time in the minors by slashing .324/.384/.591 with 31 homers and striking out under 20% of the time…during his age-19 season while primarily spending it at Double-A (Caminero turned 20 in July).
Of course, Caminero was promoted to the playoff-bound Rays down the stretch, where he’s already flashing his massive power upside. He’s deserving of MiLB Player of the Year honors if such a thing existed. And he likely would’ve run away with that fake award had it not been for the next name on our list.
Shortstop: Jackson Holliday, Orioles
Whereas Caminero was “loosely unknown” entering the spring, the same can’t be said of Holliday, the top pick in the 2022 amateur draft.
Much of last offseason was spent debating Holliday vs Druw Jones as the 1.01 in First Year Player Drafts. That case was closed by mid-April.
When all was said and done, Holliday climbed four levels in 2023, all the way from Low-A to Triple-A, despite still not having turned 20.
Even his worst performance of the year, which came at Triple-A, included a 109 wRC+ (again, at age 19) with a 17.6 BB% and an 18.7 K%.
This summer Holliday became just the 7th player since 2006 to post a 150 wRC+ or better during his age-19 appearance at Double-A (min. 150 PAs).
While the stage is now set for him to possibly crack the Opening Day roster in 2024, expectations for his early-career big league stats should be tempered. Holliday is still physically maturing.
Profile-wise, he’s described as more of a “gap power” hitter by McRae, who also points out that Holliday does everything well, though he doesn’t have elite power or barrel rates.
Baseball America describes him as possessing mediocre high-end power but with a plus-plus chase rate, and that his swing is geared more towards line drive contact.
This all sounds like a player who is incredibly likely to be a productive big leaguer, though the ultimate ceiling is in question until we see how much muscle Holliday adds by the time he arrives in Baltimore. By all accounts Holliday’s makeup is off the charts, and he’ll bring his championship-winning attitude to the Orioles sooner rather than later.
Outfield: Roman Anthony, Red Sox
While access to minor league Statcast data remains frustrating to consistently find, there was enough signal that Anthony’s numbers were popping during his time at Low-A. This was despite the fact he hit just .227 with a single homer in 42 games.
The Red Sox apparently trusted those underlying numbers, promoted him to High-A, and he immediately took off by hitting .294/.412/.569 with 12 HR in 54 contests.
Anthony then became the first Red Sox teenager to reach Double-A since Xander Bogaerts in 2012. The profile kept producing, as Anthony balances above-average bat-to-ball skills with a discerning eye and plus raw power (per BA).
Despite the breakout campaign, most evaluators note there’s still growth that needs to be done. McRae wrote about his struggles against lefties, in particular.
Still, Anthony combines an incredibly promising base with an elite offensive environment waiting for him in the majors. Chaim Bloom failed, but years from now we might look back on drafting (and developing) Anthony as one of the most lucrative developments of his tenure.
Outfield: James Wood, Nationals
Fantasy baseball managers are pouring more and more enthusiasm into size-speed outliers in recent years, with Oneil Cruz and Elly De La Cruz as recent athletic specimens to generate unprecedented hype.
James Wood could be next in line.
McRae describes him as “a dynamic player with elite athleticism at his freakish stature.”
This was evidenced during a 2023 spring training game where he clocked a 29.8 ft/s sprint speed.
The batted ball quality is the headliner tool for Wood, who put up a top-12 Double-A ISO among hitters age 20 or younger since 2006.
Opposing pitchers are going to continue fearing Woods’ prodigious power, and they’re going to pitch around him as he begins next season in the upper minors. He’ll need to resist expanding the zone too frequently, and by most reports he needs to keep improving against off-speed offerings.
Aaron Judge is an obvious comp, and while reaching that type of outcome should always be considered unlikely, it’s the range of upside Wood possesses. In fantasy baseball especially, that’s worth chasing.
Outfield: Wyatt Langford, Rangers
Here’s what Langford’s pro debut looked like after being selected 4th overall by Texas this summer:
200 PA
.360/.480/.677
18 BB%
17 K%
10 HR
12 SB
He’ll always be compared to Dylan Crews, who remains an elite prospect in his own right. But whereas Crews hit a wall at Double-A, Langford moved all the way up to Triple-A. He looks set to debut with the Rangers early in 2024.
Langford has been knocked for not being a premium defender, but in fantasy we primarily care about offense, and Langford rakes.
BA notes he combines power, plate skills, and optimized batted ball angles.
His game features excellent swing mechanics and a very good approach. It’s rare for a player drafted so recently to make such an immediate impression, but Langford is proving to wield a special bat.
Several Rangers took a step forward offensively under Donnie Ecker’s tutelage in 2023. Langford is well positioned to keep Texas’ momentum moving in the right direction upon his arrival. It’s easy (and wildly fun) to envision a future core of him, Evan Carter, and Josh Jung wreaking havoc on the American League West.
Designated Hitter: Coby Mayo, Orioles
Mayo’s eventual defensive home remains in question, but that isn’t why I placed him at DH. This spot goes to “best remaining offensive player”, and Mayo’s year is certainly worthy of praise.
This is especially true when you factor in volume and performance. Only two players age 22 or younger received more minor league PAs than Mayo this season. Among hitters who appeared in the upper minors, just two had a higher wRC+.
The bulk of Mayo’s prowess came at Double-A, where he slashed a heroic .307/.424/.603 with 17 homers.
Mayo’s Triple-A exploits weren’t as jaw-dropping, but he still put up a 127 wRC+ as a 21-year-old.
Mayo owns plus bat speed and hits the ball in the air. That’s the perfect formula for a modern bat in Major League Baseball. The one concern for his fantasy upside is “Mount Walltimore” at Camden Yards. The Orioles haven’t shown much of a willingness to trade from their prospect surplus, but an offseason deal would be best for his big league production.
Nonetheless, you can’t tell the story of the ‘23 MiLB season without Mayo. His name is littered across offensive leaderboards. Put plainly, he can flat out hit.