Tuma's 2023 World Baseball Classic Primer
Previewing Baseball's March Madness
I legitimately love the World Baseball Classic.
I was a few years into my rabid baseball fandom when the inaugural 2006 tournament kicked off. For me, here is what the WBC accomplished:
Successfully created an international tournament with a high level of play.
Further educated everyone on lively, rich baseball cultures.
Introduced the world to future phenoms (Dice-K, Darvish, etc.)
I’ve been consuming as much WBC content as I can find this year. Baseball America and MLB.com have been doing a lot of heavy lifting, and Ken Rosenthal has a couple pieces up on The Athletic as well.
Below I preview the top teams and storylines for the 2023 Classic, and I’ll close with some historical stats and notable performances. Let’s dive in!
The Favorites
USA
The defending champs enter ‘23 with an improved roster from the one they brought to the 2017 tournament. The lineup, in particular, is jaw-dropping:
The United States will have Bobby Witt Jr., Will Smith, Tim Anderson, and Cedric Mullins coming off the bench. A lot has been made about how stacked the Dominican lineup is, and that group might be more talented on the high end, but USA is right there with them.
US fans should expect this group to lay waste to their pool play “competition.” In the most lopsided group in the tournament the Americans will face Canada, Mexico, Colombia, and Great Britain. As long as the lineup doesn’t press there’s no reason that Team USA shouldn’t go 4-0.
The question marks for this team are A) the starting rotation and B) the manager. We’ll start with the rotation, which is anchored by Lance Lynn, Brady Singer, Adam Wainwright, and Nick Martinez. Sigh.
The United States didn’t have a standout staff in 2017 either (Tanner Roark started a pivotal game for them), but its unquestionably the weakness of this roster. The team was originally supposed to have Clayton Kershaw, Nestor Cortes, and Nate Eovaldi, but they all had to drop out for various reasons. Luckily the back end of the bullpen features Devin Williams, Ryan Pressly, and David Bednar.
Then there’s first-time manager Mark DeRosa, who has never coached a professional game in his life. It’s a departure from USA Baseball’s previous selections of legendary managers (Davey Johnson in ‘09, Joe Torre in ‘13, and Jim Leyland in ‘17). DeRosa is a sharp analyst on MLB Network and played in the ‘09 WBC, but it’s always a risk entering a tournament like this with an inexperienced manager.
Japan
Japan is COMING for the Americans. This is the country with the most success in the history of the WBC (1st in ‘06 and ‘09; 3rd in ‘13 and ‘17) and the 2023 team is considered the best roster they’ve ever assembled.
Every country takes the tournament seriously, but Japan takes it to another level. They live stream their pre-tournament workouts, which have been going on for weeks and routinely last 5+ hours. After having zero active major leaguers on the 2013 team, and just one on the 2017 squad, Japan took a different approach in 2023 with the specific goal of designing a roster to take down the United States.
“The ultimate goal is to beat Team USA,” Team Japan manager Hideki Kuriyama said. “We take into consideration every possible player who can play for Team Japan, obviously in the major leagues as well. We’re going to include those guys as much as possible.”
The above graphic doesn’t even include Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki, who recently had to withdraw due to his oblique injury. In the past Japan has mostly limited their roster to Nippon Professional Baseball players. Onboarding someone like Lars Nootbaar, who has Japanese heritage but has never played in NPB, highlights their willingness to adjust.
Ohtani is the star, but he’s one of just four elite starting pitchers on this team, along with Yu Darivsh, Roki Sasaki, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Sasaki is a 21-year-old phenom who could be coming to MLB in the next couple of years. You might remember him as the pitcher who retired 52 straight batters in April 2022, nearly tossing back-to-back perfect games.
Then there’s Yamamoto, who has won two straight Sawamura awards, Japan’s version of the Cy Young. And he’s their FOURTH starter. It goes without saying Japan has the best and deepest rotation in the Classic, which pairs nicely with a diverse lineup that mixes patience, contact, and speed.
One final strategy related note — there are rumblings that, after pool play, Japan might save Sasaki and Yamamoto for the semis/finals, or really whenever they face Team USA. The thought process is that American hitters have seen Ohtani/Darvish before, but the two NPB arms are complete unknowns. Back in 2006 Daisuke Matsuzaka won Classic MVP honors as nobody was familiar with his arsenal, and therefore nobody could square him up. Perhaps Sasaki will be this year’s version of Dice-K mania.
Dominican Republic
Here’s the one you’ve been waiting for — the potential lineup card that has had baseball twitter buzzing all winter long:
Edit: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (knee) withdrew from the WBC over the weekend.
And keep in mind it could be even better — Jose Ramirez, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Starling Marte are all absent for various reasons.
There are really only two question for the DR — A) who plays shortstop between Jeremy Peña, Willy Adames, and Wander Franco, and B) who plays second base between Ketel Marte, Jean Segura, and Franco? Those are good “problems” to have, however, as top-to-bottom the DR lineup should strike an immense amount of fear in any pitcher unlucky enough to face them. Eloy Jimenez is a bench bat for this squad.
In the past, the Dominican teams have been built around power offense and power bullpens, but the rotation has been lacking. Not this year. Reigning NL Cy Young award winner Sandy Alcantara anchors this staff, with trendy ‘23 breakout selection Cristian Javier and Roansy Contreras right behind him. The bullpen is filled with filthy, hard-throwing arms such as Camilo Doval, Bryan Abreu (get to know him now), and Gregory Soto.
The DR is the only nation to ever go undefeated in a WBC with an 8-0 run back in 2013. That perfect tournament has been bookended by two uneven performances, though — a 5th place finish in 2017 and a stunning 9th place finish in 2009.
They’re once again an obvious favorite, but they have the toughest road to advance out of group play when compared to USA and Japan. That’s because the Dominicans are in the “group of death” alongside Puerto Rico and Venezuela, which means Group D arguably has 3 of the top 5 rosters in this 20-team tournament. And one of them isn’t advancing.
This also sets up a potential superpower matchup in the quarterfinals. The 1 seed from Group C (likely USA) will face the 2 seed from Group D in a win-or-go-home contest. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that could be USA vs DR.
Groups C and D facing off in the quarterfinals is another reason why Japan is my current pick to win it all. Not only do they avoid USA/DR until the semis at the earliest, but their rotation is so much deeper than the other two favorites.
Other Top Storylines
Cuba
There’s a great piece on Fangraphs from Michael Baumann detailing what’s going on with Cuba’s WBC roster.
This is a country who used to be an international powerhouse — often fielding a roster full of hitters who could immediately fit into a MLB lineup. In the 5 Olympic games between 1992 and 2008 they won Gold three times and Silver twice. They also finished 2nd in the ‘06 WBC.
This was during a time when Cuba would lose the occasional star who defected, but what has happened since has cratered the country’s ability to compete. Simply put, too many stars have left to pursue MLB opportunities, and Cuba didn’t even qualify for the 2021 Tokyo Olympics.
Things have changed this year, however. For the first time ever their roster features active major league players, headlined by Yoan Moncada and Luis Robert. That doesn’t mean they’re back to being a favorite — Yordan Alvarez, Jose Abreu, and the Gurriel brothers aren’t playing. Meanwhile, Randy Arozarena is choosing to play for Mexico instead. Still, this is a step in the right direction for Cuba to get back to the level of play they expect of themselves internationally.
Venezuela
Aside from a 3rd place finish in 2009, Venezuela has historically under performed in the WBC. Their next best finish is coming in 7th back in 2006, so it’s been a while since they’ve made noise in this tournament.
Ronald Acuña played like a man possessed in the Venezuelan Winter League this offseason, and he’s reportedly ecstatic to be taking the field this March. He’ll lead the type of contact-oriented lineup that typically does well in tournament play.
As previously mentioned they’re a top-5 team on paper. The only issue is that only 2 of them, the DR, and Puerto Rico can advance out of pool play.
Puerto Rico
The 2017 runner-ups have been dealt a couple of roster-related blows, losing both Carlos Correa and Jose Miranda in recent weeks.
However, there’s still a core of Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez, Jose Berrios, Marcus Stroman, and Edwin Diaz.
Puerto Rico has never finished lower than 5th in the WBC and they’ve won back-to-back Silver medals, so it’s probably a mistake by me not to consider them with the favorites. However, when judging the 2023 rosters on paper there’s no case to be made that they belong with The Big 3, and other countries have simply improved more than they have in the years since the inaugural Classic.
Mexico
Mexico is one of those teams who have improved over the years. Ironically, after back-to-back (surprising) quarterfinal appearances in ‘06 and ‘09, Mexico hasn’t advanced out of pool play in the two most recent tournaments.
But this is likely the best roster the country has fielded since the inception of the WBC. The rotation will be anchored by Julio Urias while also featuring Patrick Sandoval, Taijuan Walker, and Jose Urquidy. The lineup includes Arozarena, Alex Verdugo, and Rowdy Tellez.
Their main competition to advance to Round 2 will be against Canada. However, if that happens they’ll be facing one of the Latin American juggernauts from Group D.
2023 Bracket
Historical Stuff
Previous winners:
Previous MVPs:
2006: Dice-K (Japan)
2009: Dice-K (Japan)
2013: Robinson Cano (DR)
2017: Marcus Stroman (USA)
2023 Betting Odds (via Draftkings):
Dominican Republic +200
USA +250
Japan +275
All these odds are horrible and I don’t advise betting on anyone to win the WBC, even though these 3 are the clear favorites. The next betting favorite is Venezuela at 10/1 but I’m not into taking any long shots either. Any betting opportunities I’ll either be tweeting out or sharing on Patreon like I do for my season-long MLB bets.
great stuff as always Brendan!