Wander Franco Is Making the Leap

Playing through injuries last season disguised such an obvious breakout case

I first became obsessed with Wander Franco’s upside towards the end of his rookie campaign in 2021. It wasn’t hard as Franco was baseball’s consensus No. 1 prospect entering the year, and had been pegged as a future star for quite some time. Still, his performance down the stretch highlighted how special his skill set was.

He was called up in June of that summer and posted a 78 WRC+ with a 20.8 K% through his first 120 big league plate appearances. From then on he recorded a 157 wRC+ with a 6.4 K% (lower than his 7.4 BB% during this time).

But it wasn’t just that he improved throughout his first season. Lots of rookies do that. Franco stood out because he had the lowest strikeout rate in baseball throughout this stretch, but it came with a .203 ISO. The other names who combined a low K% with this type of power were Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Jose Ramirez - but Franco’s K% was easiest the lowest of that group.

It’s hard for hitters to create that type of consistent contact while not striking out. Swinging hard often means taking a risk that you’ll whiff. It’s why many top power bats throughout the league post unappealing K rates. And Franco was doing this as a rookie.

The hype was loud for his sophomore season in 2022, and people seemingly forget how well he performed out of the gate, slashing .331/.355/.525 with a 4 BB% and a 9.7 K% through May 9th.

Then from May 10th through July 9th he hit .183 with a 54 wRC+ while missing time due to hamstring and quad injuries, and then he fractured the hamate bone in his right wrist shortly before the All-Star break. Once healthy, he hit .322/.381/.471 with a 9.3 BB% and a 7.2 K% to close out the year.

This is why I think so many (myself included) missed on Franco entering 2023. Now missed is a strong word, but considering his ADPs were quite affordable right up to Opening Day, we should’ve been pounding the table for a former elite prospect who still had scalding stretches of excellence in a “disappointing” year.

This is especially the case when his poor performance coincided with well-documented soft tissue injuries. Playing through injury is part of why so many (again myself included) were into Taylor Ward this offseason. But Ward was a league-altering waiver pickup last season. Wander was the early-round fantasy bust.

So since Franco played through injury, and did poorly, his 2023 projections weren’t as bullish as they should’ve been — and that’s without factoring in the idea that he could keep improving in his age-22 season (!!).

Here’s part of what I wrote in my shortstop dynasty rankings takeaway back in January:

Evaluating Wander this offseason reminds me of Vlad Jr. entering 2021. That isn’t to say Franco will finish 2nd in the AL MVP voting this season, but it’s a similar situation with a highly touted young player who has yet to live up to expectations at the big league level.

And I closed with this:

Franco is now tailoring his offseason workouts to improve his flexibility after having those leg muscle issues last year. That’s a little thing, but it’s a reminder how young players often take time to adjust to life in the major leagues.

I understand concerns that Franco might wind up as only plus and never plus-plus, but there’s still a ton of value in that. The key for him reaching his ceiling would be tapping into his pull-side power a la Jose Ramirez. Presently, Franco is a gap-to-gap line drive hitter while his best fantasy skills are batting average and runs. You shouldn’t expect that profile to necessarily swing fantasy leagues. But the floor is so high, he’s still so young, and there are paths for him to elevate into a higher tier one of these years down the line.

I ranked him 3rd among shortstops for dynasty, which felt “above consensus.” Nobody was necessarily down on him, but the enthusiasm was waning.

Flash forward to now, where Franco enters Thursday’s action slashing .340/.377/.720 with a 205 wRC+. The enthusiasm is back, it’s LOUD, and I think it’s justified.

Wander’s stats look silly — that’s what happens when you’re on a heater, but even his under-the-surface/process/underlying numbers are so overly encouraging.

Franco is hitting fly balls 53.5% of the time. He’s chasing less than ever before. His hard-hit rate is up, as are his exit velocities. Then there’s his barrel%, which presently sits at a staggering 16.3% after 43 batted balls.

This is important because barrel rate tends to stabilize around 50 batted ball events. Foolish Baseball wisely pointed out this week that a 20% barrel rate isn’t sustainable, but potentially doubling his 4.6% mark from 2022 would make him “a problem.”

Thinking beyond fantasy, Wander seems like a nightmare for an opposing pitcher to face, especially once the playoffs roll around (because the Rays are already 12-0). There’s no hole in his swing. He isn’t a feared slugger who might chase sliders low and away. He’s just a natural hitter who makes a ton of contact and seemingly has an innate ability to manipulate the barrel of his bat when doing so.

And finally, there’s the eye test. Wander looks the part, just like he did in his first postseason series.

I’m a data-driven baseball mind who likes to use projections when constructing a fantasy roster. I think having that framework puts you in position to be right more often than not, but only relying on that doesn’t account for the final leap of faith where you tell yourself “fuck it, I need this guy no matter what.”

It’s early, but Wander Franco looks like that guy so far. Health permitting, he’s tracking towards making “the leap” this year. He probably already has.