Why Isn’t Cristian Javier Fully Breaking Out?
The 26-year-old has been good-not-great in his first season as a full-time starter
Across all fantasy sports, one of the best ways to find breakout, league-winning players is to target those who have historically been highly efficient and are about to walk into more opportunity.
We can talk all about Cristian Javier’s underlying metrics from 2022. In fact, that’s exactly what I did this past offseason, where I made the case for Javier to be the pitcher you target most in 2023 fantasy drafts.
If you want to remind yourself what the bull case was for him entering ‘23, I recommend giving the piece a re-read (or an initial read if you’re new here! Welcome!)
But it boils down to this — the 26-year-old who pitches for one of the best player development organizations in baseball, and who had flashes of absolute brilliance in 2022, was about to be a full-time member of the starting rotation for the first time.
And then his “stuff” worsened out of the blue:
The most concerning drop-off is his fastball, which went from being a top-5 four-seamer in 2022 to a thoroughly below average one this season.
His average fastball velocity is down from 93.8 mph in 2022 to 92.6 mph in 2023.
He’s also getting worse drop, with his vertical movement on the pitch increasing from 12.2 inches last year to 13.6 inches so far in ‘23.
Interestingly, Javier’s four-seamer is still a top-3 one according to Baseball Savant’s run value, and it ranks top-15 among starters in whiff% too.
But it’s also getting hit harder, with the xwOBA allowed on it increasing from .272 to .326. The batting average and slugging percentage allowed are each worse in 2023 as well.
His slider is performing worse as well, and it’s a similar story. The velocity has dropped a bit, and his whiff rate on the pitch is down from 39.4% in 2022 to 30.6% this season.
The horizontal movement on Javier’s slider jumped from 10.7 inches of break in 2021 to 15.1 (!!) last season. This year it’s down to 13.1 inches, per Savant.
Brooks Baseball highlights the decrease:
So not only is Javier’s “stuff” down, but the locations in which he’s throwing his top-two offerings have been terrible. Here’s some graphics comparing 2022 to 2023:
Last year his fastball was consistently located at the top of the strike zone, and his slider was darting low and away.
This season the fastball is creeping back towards the middle of the plate, and the slider is almost exclusively coming in middle-middle.
Results wise, Javier has been able to reduce his walk rate this year:
2021: 12.5%
2022: 8.9%
2023: 5.9%
There was once a time where Javier’s control/command was questionable as it pertained to his ability to start. This makes me think he’s almost intentionally reducing his “stuff” in order to live in the zone more (and get through an opposing lineup multiple times).
But his K% has also plummeted, down from 33.2% in ‘22 to 23.8% in ‘23. Only Carlos Carrasco has a bigger year-over-year decrease.
The same story holds up across the rest of his underlying metrics. His contact rate is up this season, and his swinging strike rate is down.
Despite all this, Javier’s 2.90 ERA ranks 14th among qualified starters. His 17.8 K-BB% ranks 24th. It hasn’t been a disaster. He just hasn’t taken “the leap” we were all expecting.
Over the offseason I traded Gunnar Henderson and some other stuff in a dynasty league for Javier plus some other stuff. I now regret that move. Not massively, because Javier is shaping up as a reliable, durable starter in a season where those are tough to find.
I regret it because Javier might not be as special as we thought, at least as a full-time starter.
Perhaps he’s still adjusting to the pitch clock and starting full-time, and that he’s “saving” some bullets for later in the year. I don’t recommend jumping ship. His high-end stuff could theoretically come back given his age. But it’s still been a bit of a letdown.