Superstar Report: Spencer Strider, Corbin Carroll, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Checking in on some studs
We spend so much time analyzing rookies and fringy roster-worthy players for fantasy baseball purposes. This is because those are the players who typically require action - add or drop, buy or sell - whereas stars are more “set and forget”, especially for lineup decisions.
But I sometimes find myself not paying enough attention to these stars, so every now and then I’m going to choose a few to write about, just to see what’s going on under the hood, and to help keep us informed about the most important players in our fantasy leagues.
A few weeks ago I wrote about the “struggles” of Julio Rodriguez, Trea Turner, and Austin Riley. The players profiled today aren’t letting fantasy managers down, but they’re still worthy of further inspection!
If you’re interested in additional breakdowns like this you can sign up for Patreon using this link here. As always, don’t hesitate to reach out on Twitter, @toomuchtuma.
Spencer Strider, SP, Braves
I think we’ve reached a point where Strider is the consensus SP1 in redraft, dynasty, best ball, and everywhere else fantasy points are calculated.
He’s 24 years old leading the majors in K%, K-BB%, and strikeouts. He’s also top-5 in FIP, top-3 in xFIP, and top-10 in WHIP.
He has the best Stuff+ and Pitching+ among all starters, and he has the best swinging strike rate as well.
In fact, some of these stats are historically good. Strider’s 40.6 K% only trails 2020 Shane Bieber, which came in a similar sample to Strider’s innings total this season, and it was before sticky stuff enforcements. His 31.3 K-BB% ranks 5th all time, and there are multiple shortened 2020 campaigns ahead of him (Bieber and Jacob deGrom, and then 2019 Gerrit Cole and 1999 Pedro).
Strider’s current 14.6 K/9 is the highest ever.
His 19.8 SwStr% only trails 2020 deGrom.
So while Strider is “only” 20th in ERA right now, and has been allowing more homers than his rookie year, thus affecting his fWAR, keep in mind what he’s doing beneath those surface stats.
One last note - Strider isn’t just throwing as hard as he can anymore. As The Athletic’s David O’Brien outlines here, that’s what he did in 2022. So far this season Strider has been a more intentional pitcher, trusting the quality of his pitches so that he won’t tire out as quickly.
Strider’s fastball velo is down a tick, but I’d be more worried about that if I hadn’t read those comments from him. It clearly isn’t affecting his Stuff+. He’s also adjusting his pitch mix:
2022: 67% fastball, 28% slider
2023: 60% fastball, 34% slider
He’s evolving. He’s young. He’s proving to be durable so far. He’s going to keep adjusting. The stuff is outrageous. Spencer Strider, SP1 everywhere.
Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks
Before the season began I did a post predicting the first 2 rounds of 2024 fantasy baseball drafts. I had Carroll 14th overall, slotted as an early second-round pick.
I might’ve been too low.
The 22-year-old has put up a 142 wRC+ thus far, which ranks third among rookies. His 2.5 fWAR ranks first. He’s currently second in runs and third in homers. His 17 steals rank third, but his ISO roughly triples the two speedsters ahead of him (Esteury Ruiz, Ji Hwan Bae).
And Carroll has improved his plate discipline since arriving to the big leagues late last season:
An 11.1 BB% and a 20.5 K% is kind of perfect for fantasy scoring, particularly in 5x5 roto leagues. He has just enough patience to allow him to get on base, score runs, and steal bases, but he also doesn’t walk too much to the point where it minimizes his batting average impact.
Now let’s talk about his batted ball impact. There were some concerns entering this year that Carroll’s minor league power numbers were inflated by hitting-friendly environments within the D’Backs’ farm system.
And yet through his first 349 major league plate appearances he has a .235 ISO. He had a .248 ISO in Triple-A.
Carroll’s .233 ISO in 2023 is a top-25 mark in all of baseball.
He has a 113.8 maxEV — 92nd percentile.
He’s little, or maybe compact is a better description. But he can scold the ball, he’s fast as hell, and he’s essentially fantasy baseball’s next Trea Turner. Carroll is real life Pete Wheeler and he’s living up to the hype.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays
Here are Vlad’s xwOBAs from the past three years:
2021: .417
2022: .347
2023: .400
And his actual wOBAs:
2021: .419
2022: .351
2023: .353
Interesting! In both ‘21 and ‘22 Vladito’s stats were (for lack of a better word) “deserved.” And after last season’s “letdown” from an MVP runner-up campaign, it felt as 2021 might end up being a career year.
That might still be the case, but under the hood Guerrero is showing that ceiling still exists. He has the same barrel/PA rate as ‘21, and his hard-hit rate is actually up a tad.
His ground ball rate has once again been reduced:
His current 44.8 GB% is actually the exact same as what he posted in ‘21. For reference, it ballooned to 52.1% last season.
While average launch angle isn’t always the best metric to use, this image below shows he’s more consistently lifting the ball — just like in ‘21:
When I look at his overall profile, the only area where I can nitpick is his chase rate. Guerrero was honest about what happened in ‘22. He said he was trying to do too much, and was actively going to work on chasing less this year.
He began 2023 doing very well in this regard, but he’s recently reverted back to a swing-happy approach on pitches outside the strike zone:
As a result he’s pulling less fly balls than he was in ‘21, and he thus has a 12.7 HR/FB% (well below his career mark of 19.2%).
Vlad is doing so much good when it comes to his process and his batted ball profile. He’s one tweak away from a monstrous second half. I can’t wait to see how it unfolds.