The Dodgers Are Committed to Their Next Wave of Impact Prospects
And Dynasty Managers Should Be Too
There are certain organizations you don’t bet against when it comes to player development. The Astros, Rays, Guardians, Braves, and Dodgers come to mind right away.
These organizations understand that player development isn’t about accumulating the most top prospects. The Pirates have been picking atop the draft for a decade now. They have an exhausting list of high-upside minor leaguers, but there’s always the question of “will Pittsburgh get the most out of them?”
Meanwhile, clubs like the Dodgers always seem to get the most out of their players. It’s why I’m so optimistic about their incoming wave of talent. After a few years of rolling out a veteran-heavy roster, LA is ready to debut the next wave of impact rookies while resetting their payroll for Shohei Ohtani’s impending free agency.
Most of these names are well regarded, but maybe not to the extent they should be. I find myself wanting to rank every one of them above consensus. They’re good players who should get the “Dodgers bump” in rankings by other outlets, not to mention the “Dodgers shine” of perceived trade value. Let’s take a look at each of their situations entering 2023.
Miguel Vargas, 1B/3B, (2B/LF?)
We’ll start with a projected lineup:
Mookie Betts, RF
Freddie Freeman, 1B
Will Smith, C
Max Muncy, 3B
JD Martinez, DH
Gavin Lux, SS
Trayce Thompson/James Outman, CF
Chris Taylor, 2B/LF
Miguel Vargas/Trayce Thompson/James Outman, LF
This isn’t as deep or as flexible of a lineup as we’re used to the Dodgers having. Right off the bat, starting Lux at short and Muncy third isn’t the best defensive setup. The bottom of the order is quite uninspiring as well.
$10 million for a single season commitment to JD Martinez’s bounce back attempt was a tremendous value, both for his bat and because of his status as a de-facto hitting coach. However, having a full-time DH limits their lineup options on a daily basis. I suppose if JD hits well enough that won’t be as much of an issue, and if he doesn’t produce then he won’t need everyday ABs, but at least initially it creates a logjam without many exciting alternatives.
It also muddies the path for one of the most exciting options — Vargas.
Without Martinez, Vargas could’ve been viewed as the everyday third baseman (while splitting some DH time with Muncy). He still would’ve needed to earn his spot, but the chance could’ve been there for him on Opening Day. After hitting .304/.404/.511 (129 wRC+) with elite plate discipline (13.7 BB%, 14.6 K%) and a .208 ISO at Triple-A, Vargas seems ready for an everyday role.
I’ll note that Vargas hit just .170 through his first 50 big league PAs, but those at-bats mostly came during scattered playing time in September. The Dodgers had a veteran team competing for a World Series. It was never about Vargas in 2022 for them. I took it as the club trying to get him some experience for a larger role in ‘23.
It’s also fascinating to note that during Vargas’ time in the majors he played 8 games at 1B, 7 in LF, and just 1 at 3B. (In Triple-A he played heavy 3B with some LF).
So far this offseason both Ken Rosenthal and Juan Toribio have written about Vargas seeing time at second base this season. Instead of instantly being plugged into an everyday job, might Vargas wind up as more of a role player initially? While spelling starters at 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, and DH?
As I recently mentioned with Gunnar Henderson, I typically prefer for top prospects to settle into one spot defensively. It seems as if Vargas could be at risk of frustrating early-career playing time, similar to Kyler Tucker’s arrival in Houston. Additional position flexibility would be nice, but only if it came with everyday ABs. I’ll be hawking Dodgers lineup cards in both spring training and the early portion of the season.
Michael Busch, 2B/LF/DH
The No. 31 pick from the 2019 draft, Busch turned 25 this past November. The Dodgers took their time with him after the lost 2020 season, giving the lefty-swinging, Muncy clone a whopping 632 PAs in Double-A between 2021-22.
Busch was called up to Triple-A this past May, and while the results weren’t as eye-popping as his Double-A numbers, he still showed disciplined pitch selection to pair with a simple, athletic swing.
Busch’s best traits are power upon making contact and patience at the plate, though I’d like to see his BB% rise from the 9.9% mark he posted at Triple-A (which it did as the season went on). His hit tool is more average.
As long as Busch picks up where he left off to close 2022 (he hit .283 with a 12.1 BB% and 11 homers over his final 60 games), then he’ll be in play for a big league promotion whenever a roster spot opens up in 2023.
Bobby Miller, SP
This is where I think there’s the biggest gap in perceived versus actual value, and I think it’s partly because of his 4.45 ERA at Double-A in 2022. It’s worth noting that this came in the Texas League, known to be an offensive-friendly environment. The Dodgers’ Double-A park is in the 66th percentile in my MiLB park factors, which can be found on my Patreon.
Miller had a 3.45 FIP and a 3.47 xFIP at the level. Not elite, but they indicate a better skill set than what his ERA showed.
The 23-year-old started the year slowly, but he caught fire in July and August, registering a 26.7 K-BB% across 47 innings. The performance earned Miller a promotion to Triple-A to close out September.
Scouting wise, Miller showed in ‘22 that he can hold his velocity deep into starts. His total innings spiked from 56 1/3 in 2021 to 112 1/3 this past season. Right now Miller attacks the strike zone with premium velocity and three above-average secondaries. Refining the command of those secondaries could lead to a monstrous breakout. He also performed well in Eno Sarris’ Stuff+ model in a very small sample last spring.
Gavin Stone, SP
Before we get to Stone’s background let’s look at LA’s rotation as of mid-January:
Julio Urias
Clayton Kershaw
Dustin May
Tony Gonsolin
Noah Syndergaard
Walker Buehler is expected to miss all of 2023 as he recovers from Tommy John.
This rotation is..fine, but similar to the team’s lineup it isn’t as star-studded (or as deep) as we’re used to seeing. I’d be surprised if they don’t sign a veteran arm or two for insurance, but as you can see there’s potentially a ton of opportunity for the club’s top pitching prospects. Then in 2024 Urias, Kershaw, and Syndergaard all become free agents.
Enter Stone, a 2020 5th round pick who didn’t start in college until his draft season. Since joining the Dodgers he has turned his changeup into his best pitch while splitting his breaking ball into a mid-80s slider/cutter and a slower curve.
I profiled Stone statistically in my Prospect Team of the Year. Among minor league arms who threw at least 100 IP he finished 11th in K%, 13th in K-BB%, 1st in ERA, 2nd in FIP, and 7th in xFIP.
Similar to Miller, the talent is obvious, and he’s someone I want to be buying before his path to the majors becomes even clearer. We know the Dodgers like to take their time with prospect development. We also know neither Miller or Stone are on the 40-man roster, which means the first “SP depth” opportunities in 2023 will likely go to…
Ryan Pepiot, SP/RP
We know the book on Pepiot at this point. The “stuff” is outrageous. The control is atrocious. Pepiot’s calling card is a possible 80-grade changeup. However, big league hitters quickly learned to lay off of it, and Pepiot walked a grotesque 16.9% of the hitters he faced in 36 1/3 MLB innings last year.
He’s still a name to know because if the control becomes even average, his stuff is worth betting on. I agree with Eric Longenhagen that Pepiot currently profiles as an inefficient 5-inning starter or a vicious 1-2 inning reliever.
Improved command for a Dodgers pitching prospect wouldn’t be surprising by any means (the “Dodger bump!”), so pay close attention to Pepiot in spring training. Even without notable gains, his status on the 40-man roster means he’ll likely get a shot in 2023 before Miller/Stone.
Michael Grove and Andre Jackson are two other young arms who are also already on the 40-man as well.
Diego Cartaya, C
Dalton Rushing, C
We’ll close by addressing two prospects who won’t play in 2023, but who I am just so bullish on.
Cartaya is close to becoming a blue-chipper. While Francisco Alvarez has been anointed the top catching prospect in baseball, and rightfully so, there shouldn’t be as big of a gap between him and Cartaya as there was to close out 2022.
Cartaya’s reputation is that of a physical masher with “uncommon poise and maturity defensively”, per Baseball America. His power and throwing arm are both elite tools. After being limited to 31 tremendous games in 2021, he backed up the hype by hitting .254 with 22 HR, a 14.2 BB%, a 26.7 K%, a .249 ISO, and a 139 wRC+ between Low-A and High-A in 2022.
Cartaya just turned 21 in September, hasn’t reached Double-A yet, and plays for a franchise known to slow-play development. Will Smith is also under contract for at least three more seasons, so Cartaya is likely to be eased into the majors in 2024 and 2025.
Currently positioned as my No. 14 catcher in dynasty, Cartaya is “the next top catching prospect” after Alvarez. Lowering his K% as he advances to Double-A could make him a top-10 prospect overall by this time next year.
If Cartaya appears to be blocked, the situation is even worse for Rushing, a 2022 Round 2 selection who is already shaping up as one of the steals of the draft.
I’m going to be recommending Rushing in First Year Player Drafts coming up (rankings being finalized soon). Part of the reason he fell to the 2nd round in the MLB draft was because he spent most of his collegiate career behind Henry Davis at Louisville.
The Dodgers pounced, and then Rushing hit .424/.539/.778 with 8 homers in 28 games at Low-A to end the season. Clearly the level was too easy for him, but I still find it impressive since it was a longer sample size and he's only 21. Rushing isn't a perfect hitter, but he combines the ability to elevate with decent bat-to-ball skills.
He’s athletic behind the plate and needs some defensive refinement. Don’t worry about the situation too much in FYPDs. As usual, this is a spot to prioritize talent over immediate opportunity.